"Imagine pushing your car for 20 miles. You can use ropes and pulleys,
but no motors, no electricity. That's the hard work that we pay $3 a
gallon for."
~ Richard Heinberg
Author
of:
The
Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies and
Powerdown:
Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World
Peak Oil:
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The point in time at
which global oil production reaches its maximum
-
Implies that 1/2 the
earths' oil is extracted at that time
-
Does not mean
“running out of oil”
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Does means a
continuous decline in production
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Implies the need for
huge societal change
-
Oil will not be as
available or inexpensive
-
Refers to
“conventional” or “regular” oil
-
Other oil sources
exist (tar sands), they come with higher extraction costs ($ and
environmental)
A variation of what follows was presented by:
Steve Andrews
September 23, 2005 at the
2nd U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and
Community Solutions
http://www.communitysolution.org/
Reproduced on this web with permission.
Steve Andrews is a
Denver-based energy consultant and freelance writer. He has worked at the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory and has taught solar energy design
college classes. He is also a contributor to the PBS documentary series
Running on Empty and a Contributor/Participant in the Documentary: End of
Suburbia
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
A short primer on PEAK OIL can be
reviewed here:
http://www.communitysolution.org/ppts/PeakOil.ppt
Frequently asked question about peak oil
are answered here:
http://www.communitysolution.org/peakqanda.html
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas -
USA
http://www.aspo-usa.com/
Table of Contents
I. Understanding the Problem: A Dozen Factors Pushing Peak Oil
1. Two important
figures.
2.
Oil field development results in a production peak and then
decline.
3. U.S. oil production
peaked in 1970.
4.
Discovery declines - then production declines.
5. Explosions:
Population verses Vehicles
6.
Additional oil
discoveries defer "PEAK OIL" a few years
7. Transportation accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. oil use.
8. World’s 20 largest oil consumers
9. Demand -- the
“China Factor”
10.
“Super-team producers”
11.
The A-Team -- the world’s 15 largest oil producers
12. The B-team producers
II. Mitigating Risk: Acting Now to Reduce Peak Oil’s Impact
1. The "Silver Bullet" Trap
2. The unconventional oil
cavalry…
3. Vehicle efficiency
4.
Bio-fuels
5. Coal, nuclear, solar and
wind?
6. Hydrogen
7. We can act, we must act
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I. Understanding the Problem: A Dozen
Factors Pushing Peak Oil
Return to
Table of Contents
Someday, world oil production on our planet
will “peak" -- output will reach an all-time high.
Thereafter, a growing population will have less oil to burn. This event is
not speculation; it is a matter of when -- not if.
The drivers toward the eventual peak are reflected below. Timing of the peak will
be affected by: geologic limits, politics, business cycles, wars and
revolutions, application of technology, industry infrastructure such as
pipelines, ships, etc. What happens after the peak -- the social, economic
and political consequences -- will be driven by decisions and investments
made now -- at the household, local, state, national and international
level.
What can be done to contribute toward the mitigation
of this looming
issue?
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1.
Two important figures.
Return to
Table of Contents
Today, the World consumes 84 million barrels
of petroleum per
day. Think of a river, like the Colorado flowing through Glenwood
Springs (CO) in July.
Today, the US
consumes 21 million barrels of petroleum per
day—25% of the world’s total.
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2.
Oil field development results in a production peak and then
decline.
Return to Table of Contents
Professional athletes perform best when they
are young. They grow smarter with experience to offset aging.
Finally their performance declines. Oil fields “perform” in the same
manner, peaking and then depleting over time.
Most super-giant oil fields today qualify as
"middle-aged."
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3. U.S. oil production
peaked in 1970.
Return to
Table of Contents
When all of a nation’s oil resources are
aggregated, the nation's total production eventually peaks. The U.S.
peaked 35 years ago. Developing Prudhoe Bay, the largest field in our history,
only slowed the eventual rate of decline; drilling in the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) will have less impact. It is
smaller and likely to be more difficult to develop. Today’s
improved technology cannot offset the accelerating depletion of “mature” oil
fields.
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4. Discovery declines
- then production declines.
Return to
Table of Contents
Worldwide
oil discovery peaked during the 1960s. Today only 1/3 as
much new oil is discovered as consumed annually.
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5. Explosions:
Population verses Vehicles
Return to
Table of Contents
Between 1950 and
2005, world population more than doubled to 6 billion. U.S. and world vehicles
bred like rabbits, increasing 10 times.
Currently there are approximately 235 million
on-road vehicles in the U.S. and 800 million total
vehicles worldwide.
Oil scarcity is a liquids problem today.
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6.
Additional oil
discoveries defer "PEAK OIL" a few years
Return to
Table of Contents
Experts disagree
over how much new oil is waiting to be discovered. Based on the
current growth in petroleum demand, increasing the rate of discovery by
40% only
delays the peak by 15 years! Peak timing will not be significantly
impacted without a drastic reduction or elimination in the growth
in demand for oil.
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7. Transportation accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. oil use.
Return to Table of Contents
Transportation dominates U.S. oil
consumption. Continued growth simply can’t go on. Change will come, either
by: 1) choice, 2) sensible new policy initiatives, or 3) harsh “price
rationing.”
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8. World’s 20 largest oil consumers
Return to Table
of Contents
|
Nation |
Million barls/d |
2004 % increase |
Per cap. vs. U.S. |
1 |
USA |
20.5 |
2.8% |
100% |
2 |
China |
6.68 |
15.8% |
10% |
3 |
Japan |
5.29 |
-3.0% |
62% |
4 |
Germany |
2.63 |
0.9% |
49% |
5 |
Russia |
2.57 |
3.1% |
26% |
6 |
India |
2.56 |
5.5% |
3% |
7 |
S. Korea |
2.28 |
-0.8% |
70% |
8 |
Canada |
2.21 |
3.9% |
97% |
9 |
France |
1.98 |
0.9% |
48% |
10 |
Mexico |
1.90 |
1.8% |
26% |
11 |
Italy |
1.87 |
-2.8% |
49% |
12 |
Brazil |
1.83 |
2.7% |
14% |
13 |
U.K. |
1.76 |
2.4% |
41% |
14 |
S.Arabia |
1.73 |
6.6% |
80% |
15 |
Spain |
1.59 |
2.8% |
57% |
16 |
Iran |
1.55 |
5.1% |
25% |
17 |
Indonesia |
1.15 |
1.4% |
7% |
18 |
Thailand |
0.91 |
9.2% |
20% |
19 |
Taiwan |
0.88 |
0.9% |
57% |
20 |
Australia |
0.86 |
1.3% |
62% |
TOTAL |
63 |
(78% of world
total) |
(BP Statatistical
Review of World Energy, 2004 data)
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9. Demand --
the
“China Factor”
Return to
Table of Contents
Partial data from 2004 indicate Chinese thirst for oil grew 16%.
Data from the Oil & Gas Journal indicate that U.S. demand grew
700,000 barrels per day -- almost as much as China’s growth. |
10.
“Super-team producers”
Return to
Table of Contents
Three nations dominate oil production,
extracting 1/3 of the world’s
daily total. Once those three peak, the world peaks. Keep your eye on
Saudi Arabia.
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11.
The A-Team -- the world’s 15 largest oil producers -- pump out 77%
daily production
Return to Table
of Contents
Italics = already reached peak.
Underlined = at or near peak production.
Dashed = 2025 Fantasy
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12. The
B-team producers
Return to Table
of Contents
55 other nations produce the world’s
leftovers (23%). Oil production is increasing in half of those
countries: Libya, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Syria and Chad. These
increases are more than offset by declining daily oil from post-peak
Argentina, Australia, Columbia, Indonesia and Oman. |
II. Mitigating Risk: Acting Now to Reduce Peak Oil’s Impact
Return to Table
of Contents
A desperate need exists for investments to
mitigate the pitfalls of peak oil. The less time remaining before daily
oil production peaks, plateaus, then declines, the more urgent the need to
act.
Searching for silver bullets to slay this
dragon is misleading.
Oil makes up 38% of the world's commercial
energy consumption. It's fluid nature and high energy density -- make it
our most flexible energy resource. It is black magic.
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1. The
"Silver Bullet" Trap
Return to Table
of Contents
Despite proponents’ claims, oil
replacements on the horizon aren't capable of doing what oil does for us
today.
Instead of searching for silver bullets,
focus on the silver BB's
View options with “energy glasses” and be a
harsh realist:
How much
transportation service could be supplied by the alternative fuel?
Consider in terms of today’s liquid fuel use, either as
millions of barrels a day of new supply, or the same amount
of fuel use avoided (demand reduction).
What’s the
projected timetable for the arrival of the alternative supply (or demand
reduction)?
What would
the projected price be?
What is the
net energy contribution of any new fuel option? Examine the ratio of
energy inputs to energy outputs. This is referred to the
“energy-profit ratio” [EPR] or energy-returned on energy invested [EROEI].
What are the
political, economic, environmental and technological barriers to the
alternative fuel’s wide spread use (or avoided demand)?
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2. The unconventional oil
cavalry…
Return to Table
of Contents
“Unconventional oil” -- from Canadian tar
sands, Venezuela’s heavy oil or even shale from the Colorado Plateau -- is
dug or “melted” out of the ground. Enormous energy inputs go into this
extraction process. The flow rate of production is more akin to hard-rock
mining than fluid dynamics. These resources will slow, but not reverse,
the rate of decline after world oil peaks.
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3. Vehicle
efficiency
Return to Table
of Contents
Vehicle efficiency is our 'societal
slam-dunk' mitigating action. However, replacing the auto fleet is an
excruciatingly slow task. Five years into the hybrid vehicle process,
235,000 hybrids cruise U.S. roadways. That’s 0.1%. New-vehicles sales of
hybrids this year is expected to be at close to 1%. This is a very
slow rate of change.
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4. Bio-fuels
Return to Table
of Contents
Based on Energy Profit Ratio (EPR),
ethanol from corn (1:1.35 to 1:1.6) is a dead-end. Cellulose-based rather
than grain-based biofuels demonstrate consistently better EPR's (Brazil
study). Research indicates switch-grass offers a better energy return.
Consider the total availability of non-corn
biofuels today!
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5. Coal, nuclear, solar and
wind?
Return to Table
of Contents
Near term, replacing oil means vehicle
fill-ups with a different liquid.
When “pluggable” hybrid vehicles hit the
market, the role electricity generation can play in offsetting oil
consumption will increase.
Electricity from:
Coal - is the ultimate climate-change bad
actor and, while more plentiful than oil, is non-renewable.
Nuclear fuel - is depleting, its lethal
by-products last many thousands of years
Wind and solar - generate power on nature’s
intermittent schedules, not necessarily when needed. They are
renewable, work well today, and are increasing in use.
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6. Hydrogen
Return to Table
of Contents
Daimler-Chrysler announced in 1998 that
100,000 hydrogen-fueled fuel-cell-powered vehicles would grace their
showroom floors by 2004. Enormous technical barriers, particularly
negative EROEI numbers, make it unlikely that H2 will offset
oil consumption before 2020.
H2 is an energy carrier, not a
fuel.
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7. We
can act, we must act
Return to Table
of Contents
Our response to World War II showed we are
capable of swift and decisive action when threatened. Failure to
respond rigorously could lead to what some analysts call, rather
clinically, “substantial economic disruptions in the years ahead.”
The impact of smart prudent action today will
be orders of magnitude better than reaction later.
A filter for evaluating Alternative Fuels
“There are no silver bullets, only silver
BB's”
1. How much fuel will be available?
-
World oil consumption is 84
million barrels per day (mmb/day); US consumption is 21 mmb/day;
and the US transportation sector consumes 14 mmb/day.
-
The answer should be in
millions of barrels of oil/equivalent per day. (MMBOE)
-
To matter, the minimum
threshold for an alternative fuel should be a tenth of a MMBOE (100,000
barrels per day). There are 42 gallons in an oil barrel.
2. When will the fuel be available?
3. How does the alternative fuel’s
net-energy balance compare to that of oil?
How many barrels of fuel are produced
per barrel of input?
4. Is the fuel partly or fully renewable?
5. Are there political barriers to be
overcome for this alternative fuel to play its projected role?
6. What technical and user barriers exist?
New vehicle technology needed?
Battery breakthrough? Fuel density?
7. What financial barriers? Are the
financial requirements large?
Cost
of infrastructure? Cost of fuels? Cost of vehicles?
8. What infrastructure barriers?
New pipelines? New refueling
infrastructure?
9. What environmental issues are associated
with this fuel’s development?
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